My Crystal Ball

Recently, I've been doing a lot of career counseling for both ATC and Pilot minded young people. I don't consider myself an expert by any means, but I do try and stay up on current technology and trends. As an aircraft owner, and user of the NAS (National Airspace System) I'm also interested in what my Government is doing for me, so I'm going to dust off my crystal ball and hopefully encourage some exchange of ideas.

As you may have read here; "Back in Action", I was recently at the FAA Tech Center, evaluating a componenet of NexGen. If you're not familiar, NexGen is somewhat of a generic term to describe the next generation of air traffic control, and is an umbrella covering numerous technological and procedural changes to the NAS. Our mission was to evaluate the use of "Datcom" in the terminal environment. Datacom, briefly, is a method to communicate and control aircraft without use of voice communication, or supplement voice communication, and is only one aspect of NexGen. Think automated Air Traffic Control, and I'll address that at a later time. (Disclaimer: I am a techie, and I love new toys) We recently installed a new Garmin 430 GPS/NAV/Com in our Cherokee, and I'm still amazed at the increased situational awareness, enhanced safety, and ease of IFR flight that it has provided. I am however still stinging from the price tag. Remember 360 channel radios, old ELTs, Loran, or for that matter VORs?

Here is my first prediction: NexGen, will be expensive. Bold prediction right?

One of my basic concerns is service to the user. Time was, air traffic was on a "first come first served" basis. This link is the Controller handbook, go ahead, look it up, the section you're looking for is 2-1-4, "Operational Priority". In order to justify the cost of equipment, the FAA will change their mode of operation to "Best equipped Best served". I didn't make up the term, check here, and here. What's the difference? My checkbook can't begin to keep up with the likes of Southwest or American airlines. If I can't afford the airborne equipment, I'll be limited to airspace and services for "non-conforming" aircraft.

By the way, do you want to know what our evaluation of Datacom found? We found limited application in the Terminal (Approach Control) environment, and in fact, the use of Datacom actually increased our workload in most conditions, and reduced the safety of the operation. While we were there, Datacom's budget, tripled.

My next prediction: Datacom is a done deal, 2018, mark your calendars.

Predictions to continue, next: "Where's the pilot?"